Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,643$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(331 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,501.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 69.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,501.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(57.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243$ on 2020-06-28

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,134$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(603 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{776,342.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(776,342.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,456$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(38.5 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,275.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,275.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66,753$ on 2020-06-28

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,827$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,809.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 84.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,809.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $157$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{777.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 146.5)}}\) (asimptote \(777.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,685$ on 2020-06-28

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,188$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,420.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 99.8)}}\) (asimptote \(109,420.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,789$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(72.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,860$ on 2020-06-28

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,149$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(5.6 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,574.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 87.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,574.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $126$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(0.861 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.2}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 72.3)}}\) (asimptote \(128.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,604$ on 2020-06-28

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,001$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(98.9 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,953.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 69.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,953.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.7)}}\) (asimptote \(215.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,454$ on 2020-06-28

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,155$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,409.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,409.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(0.435 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $573$ on 2020-06-28

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,273$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,383.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 62.6)}}\) (asimptote \(13,383.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $897$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{873.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(873.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,005$ on 2020-06-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 97%
Djibouti recovered 90%
Uganda recovered 88%
Sierra Leone recovered 17%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $866$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(865.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(29.5 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.6}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(71.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-28

Uganda⮸

Population $45,741,007$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $859$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(47.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,002.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 63.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,002.0\)) 
Uganda doesn't yet have 4.5741 dead per thousand.

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-28

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,427$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(140 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,488.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,488.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(15 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 23.4)}}\) (asimptote \(53.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $424$ on 2020-06-28